# 2010 Election



## Dexter (May 5, 2010)

Hi Everyone,

Just wondering on your opinion on the 2010 federal election. Can Libs beat Labour after Kevin and Wayne introduced Miner tax and there is a great discussion around asylum seekers? Can Tony Abbott lead the opposition to success?


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## Wanderer (Jun 16, 2007)

Dexter said:


> Hi Everyone,
> 
> Just wondering on your opinion on the 2010 federal election. Can Libs beat Labour after Kevin and Wayne introduced Miner tax and there is a great discussion around asylum seekers? Can Tony Abbott lead the opposition to success?


I would hope so but Tony should lift his game a little and I think he is capable of it as hopefully the LNP coalition as a whole is.

He was on the ABC seven thirty report last night with Red Kerry and Kerry having him in his sights just as much as the Unions do on Work Choices was after him on his backflipping [ as minor a point as it was ] re earlier statement of " No new taxes " .

Any politician should know that taxes will always vary in their context and levels and it is going to be how you sell your plan as against the oppositions that is important rather than some glib throwaway line as Tony was attempting to infer - anyway damage already done and Tony needs to review his wording to minimise the potential for future onslaughts from the opposition.

As much as it is claimed Howard won elections by the scare of border security, Labor with the help of the Union movement sure put the wind up people over work choices.
Coupled with unrest within the Libs on leadership _[ Howard should have handed the baton over but then Costello was probably not all that popular anyway _], Labor were odds on at last election.

Now it is a different ball game and I would not be surprised to see Labor do a Hawke/Hayden on Krudd and give us more Red colouring and that would be sensational in a way for Julia is from the left of Labor and they have never had a PM from the left.
Going back to Kerry, he is very supportive of her as is the likes of Tony Jones, so who knows what will happen with Labor number crunchers looking at shoring up the popularity stakes.

The Liberals do need to get their messages much more focused and clear on policies alternatives, tidying up some blatant poor policy at the same time:
1. Maternity leave which is probably only of concern to a relative few in the community but to say that someone on $150,000 p.a will get paid for six months at that salary rate whereas someone on $50,000 [ much more in need ] will get six months at that rate is just Robin Hood in reverse.
There are far more people on closer to the lower level of income and from where the LNP need to attract votes that I am staggered that the LNP cannot see that alone as an election loser.

2. On Asylum seekers, refugees or whatever they may be termed as, there needs to be a sound policy developed, well articulated and put in such a way that it decimates what Labor has done but still maintains a humane approach.
Refugees are a global issue, more so in some regions of the planet than coming across the Indian Ocean and any Australian policy needs to recognise that and that is something Labor do well enough.
I would think that what the LNP need to do is show that their removal of TPOs is what has led to the ongoing surge and attempting to put up a barrier by suspending processing is I suspect going to have minimal effect.

Australia meanwhile becoming a defacto processing arm of the UNHCR and whereas we have always had a humanitarium immigration stream via the UNHCR, we are now seeing numbers allocated to those eroded by more and more direct arrivals and that just overloads a system never designed to cope and is placing a massive strain on Immi and other resources, not to mention more substantial costs that you will have with a less controlled situation.

At the same time there will always be the possibility of massive life loss at sea and potential for that can only increase with current policy making Australia a direct destination well worth taking risks.

So whilst the LNP should be loud and clear on re-installing TPOs, they should also be doing some homework on consultation with the UNHCR as to they establishing some Indian Ocean/Indonesian presence in a more direct sense and then a good look needs to be taken at the settlement processes to best speed that up and minimise costs.

For instance, right now with Christmas Island bursting at the seams so they say and overflows to Capital cities with in the case of Brisbane a motel/hotel having a contract in excess of $1M for something like a six month period to house arrivals, the potential costs blow out could be staggering.
Going back a few decades when Australia had assisted passage immigration, the severe shortage of housing meant that immigrants were housed in hostels, they being fairly basic but comfortable enough and a roof over peoples heads.

Something needs to happen in regard to how new arrivals are to be housed in an appropriate manner for taxpayers endlessly footing motel bills is not too appropriate.
The next step is what will these people be doing in the community and there obviously needs to be something done in regard to possibility of training if needed for employment.

This is all going to be more and more cost and unless some planning is expedited, issues in communities could develop, there already being a couple of instances of violence with new arrivals at mainland centres and that needs to be nipped in the bud.
Any violent acts and my policy would be you're on the first plane out.

So certainly a great mess there to be sorted.

The Resources Super Tax needs to be dissected and fully and clearly put on display and the LNP did not do that too well re showing what benefits there may be re Work Choices and certainly not being able to articulate what can happen without an appropriate workforce structure was their last killer.

What is not at all being declared nor seemingly discussed too much at all is the threat to employment in Australia and our whole life style re Work Choices and Labors new tax, and unless the LNP get their thinking caps and running shoes on re how to project outcomes more clearly, they'll lose an opportunity and most likely the election despite other Labor gaffs.

*It needs to be clearly spelt out that Jobs, Jobs, and more Jobs will be lost and with a Job Lost where is any increase in your Superannuation!!! , and Keatings's Banan Republic may come to be *

The Government line is that taxes were raised on petroleum companies some three decades back and they did not curtail operations, but there were likely some very good reasons for it:
1. Oil has always been a much more in demand product than many minerals, the world cost despite variances always having something of a high trend upwards esecially as known resources diminish whereas many minerals do fluctuate much more and more resource options.
2. Australian oil was being produced far cheaper than what we would pay for imported oil but the government also had a world parity pricing policy and so both oil companies and government revenue were increased handsomely, courtesy of you know who!!

The other huge issue here is that whereas once Australia's economy was said to ride on the Sheeps back, it is now very connected to all that resources digging and that connected so much to the industrial revolution of China and to a lesser extent India, China's own well being much related to how their markets abroad are consuming and that ain't so good right now and who knows whether it is better or worse to come?

That being so, we do to some extent have a lot of eggs in one basket, something that is kind of the anti Christ of golden rules and that probably somewhat unavoidable given manufacturing economy more than somewhat related to scale of production as much as labour costs.

So be it that Australia's wealth is much related to a precarious scenario, should we threaten what we have got?, and yes threaten it we will for whilst you may not have a lot of immediate closures of operations, if the bottom line result is better elsewhere, competition will grow with other developments and meaning that a new development or an extension of one in Australia may not occur.

China is very active in Africa re resources developments, India and China are looking at better land transport connections which will foster commercial activities, and no idea on what their mineral resources are but the Chinese would not be agreeing unless there was something in it for them and then Canada, South America and Eastern Europe are said to have much in the way of resources.
The transport cost attached to Australia's resources exports is also quite considerable and so any additional costs are just another nail in the coffin.

*Work Choices *is already being pushed in Union sponsored advertising on television with Tony being shown as the devil re-incarnated, eyes agleaming because he says " The term work choices is dead " and again the message of the past and for the future needs to be spelt out quite clearly.

Australia's manufacturing industry does not compete very well with much greater mass of production and labour costs abroad.
Our one real manufacturing of any great note remains the Auto industry and have a look at Imported car prices and without protection you can see the future there.
Work Choices needs to be sold as not so much allowing shifty bosses to manipulate employees _[ and very clear protection needs to be included with substantial employer fines and even jail time for infringements ]_ but saving further Australian jobs from going abroad.

The Labor/Unions campaign was most effective on Work Choices and the LNP appeared totally inept at opposing it and likewise with the next election I just wonder how well the LNP can draw out some concise facts and represent them in an easily understanded way to throw Krudd and kronies where they belong.

If they cannot do that, they do not deserve to be where K & K are now and it's just as well Bananas grow easily enough to survive on them.


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## Dexter (May 5, 2010)

Hmmm...

I am not a big fan of Tony Abbott myself. However, he looks stronger than Malcolm Turnbull and apparently, more controversial, which will bring him some popularity among conservative voters. 

3 years ago I would have voted for Labor. Liberals were out of steam, Johnnie was getting tired and ran out of ideas. He was trying to introduce policies and laws that already existed at that time. For a long time I thought I would vote for Labor in this election. I must admit that I am in doubts now that it is about to happen. Why?

1. Mining tax. Australian economy is significantly influenced by mining business and setting up something like this is shooting your own foot. 

2. Some aspects of stimulus package. I understand that lower and mid income people would get these $900 per family but my boss who earns over $200k still got $600. People on student visa got that $900 too (at least the ones I know). This is just giving money away instead putting more into small and medium business. 

3. Maternity leave proposition. Another money giving. Wasn't Wayne Swan called Australian Robin Hood in the past?

4. Asylum Seekers - not much to add here. 


However, there were things that in my opinion were done properly

1. Handling financial crisis. Whatever you say, we didn't slip into long lasting recession, unemployment never crossed over 6%. Good interest rate cuts in the right moment prevented us from the disaster and temporary tumble of Aussie dolar was fixed pretty quickly. 

2. Wayne Swan apparently could not prevent banks from rising interest rates on their own but I liked his reaction and comments. The truth is that market share of mortgage market of 4 big banks rose from 60% to 90% during financial crisis. I just don't think these Westpac rises are justified. I really liked RBA actions during this crisis. 

3. Immigration Laws change. Finally!!! Someone noticed that cooks and hairdressers get qualifications, get their PR and never work in their profession. Therefore, the market gap did not shrink. Many of these immigrants got many qualifications from dodgy colleges created for visa purposes only. I am pleased to see that cooks and hairdressers are no longer on SOL or MODL and that MODL does not exist in the form it used to. The next step I am expecting is to increase points for good IELTS result and decrease them in case of 6 in each section.

4. Some temporary aspects of stimulus package such as more money from government for first home buyers. 

I am expecting a few more changes in the future such as.

1. Get someone to look into schools that exist for student visa only!!! Students come there, get their attendance and then run for their 3 hour shift to Coles, Woolies or some other job. Many of these schools should not exist

2. Get someone else to look into small business (especially Asian) who regularly create grey market. Almost every single Asian shop in Sydney pays cash to hand, no taxes or super for their employees. And the government keeps paying these in fact working people money!!! Plus since they get no super it goes from government's pocket again. 

3. As said before - increase language requirements for immigrants. Put pressure on speaking and writing as only such people can be valuable addition to Australian workforce. 

4. Do not bash mining industry!!!


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